Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
